Challenges to the delivery of clinical diabetes services in Ghana created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: The barriers to delivering clinical non-communicable disease services in low- and middle-income countries have risen with the onset of COVID-19. Using Ghana as a case study, this article examines the changes COVID-19 has brought to diabetes service delivery and considers policy responses to deal with future such outbreaks. METHODS: We conducted 18 interviews between November 2020 and February 2021 with health professionals and administrators from primary, secondary and tertiary facilities within the Ghana Health Service. The analysis was performed using deductive and inductive methods. RESULTS: There were six general themes in interviewees' responses: (1) COVID-19 had exacerbated the problems of high medicine and service costs and medicine shortages, (2) the pandemic had exacerbated problems of poor patient record keeping, (3) COVID-19 had reduced the availability of suitably trained health providers, (4) staff had become demoralized by management's unwillingness to make innovative changes to cope with the pandemic, (5) COVID-19 led to a reorganization of diabetes services, and (6) the country's national health insurance scheme lacked flexibility in dealing with the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Access to resources is limited in LMICs. However, our study highlights practical policy responses that can improve health providers' response to COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Assessing fitness-for-purpose and comparing the suitability of COVID-19 multi-country models for local contexts and users: [version 1;peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: Mathematical models have been used throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to inform policymaking decisions. The COVID-19 Multi-Model Comparison Collaboration (CMCC) was established to provide country governments, particularly low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and other model users with an overview of the aims, capabilities and limits of the main multi-country COVID-19 models to optimise their usefulness in the COVID-19 response. Methods: Seven models were identified that satisfied the inclusion criteria for the model comparison and had creators that were willing to participate in this analysis. A questionnaire, extraction tables and interview structure were developed to be used for each model, these tools had the aim of capturing the model characteristics deemed of greatest importance based on discussions with the Policy Group. The questionnaires were first completed by the CMCC Technical group using publicly available information, before further clarification and verification was obtained during interviews with the model developers. The fitness-for-purpose flow chart for assessing the appropriateness for use of different COVID-19 models was developed jointly by the CMCC Technical Group and Policy Group. Results: A flow chart of key questions to assess the fitness-for-purpose of commonly used COVID-19 epidemiological models was developed, with focus placed on their use in LMICs. Furthermore, each model was summarised with a description of the main characteristics, as well as the level of engagement and expertise required to use or adapt these models to LMIC settings. Conclusions: This work formalises a process for engagement with models, which is often done on an ad-hoc basis, with recommendations for both policymakers and model developers and should improve modelling use in policy decision making.

Hybrid simulation modelling of networks of heterogeneous care homes and the inter-facility spread of Covid-19 by sharing staff.

Although system dynamics [SD] and agent-based modelling [ABM] have individually served as effective tools to understand the Covid-19 dynamics, combining these methods in a hybrid simulation model can help address Covid-19 questions and study systems and settings that are difficult to study with a single approach. To examine the spread and outbreak of Covid-19 across multiple care homes via bank/agency staff and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions targeting this group, we develop an integrated hybrid simulation model combining the advantages of SD and ABM. We also demonstrate how we use several approaches adapted from both SD and ABM practices to build confidence in this model in response to the lack of systematic approaches to validate hybrid models. Our modelling results show that the risk of infection for residents in care homes using bank/agency staff was significantly higher than those not using bank/agency staff (Relative risk [RR] 2.65, 95% CI 2.57-2.72). Bank/agency staff working across several care homes had a higher risk of infection compared with permanent staff working in a single care home (RR 1.55, 95%CI 1.52-1.58). The RR of infection for residents is negatively correlated to bank/agency staff's adherence to weekly PCR testing. Within a network of heterogeneous care homes, using bank/agency staff had the most impact on care homes with lower intra-facility transmission risks, higher staff-to-resident ratio, and smaller size. Forming bubbles of care homes had no or limited impact on the spread of Covid-19. This modelling study has implications for policy makers considering developing effective interventions targeting staff working across care homes during the ongoing and future pandemics.

COVID-19 Vaccination in Lower-Middle Income Countries: National Stakeholder Views on Challenges, Barriers, and Potential Solutions.

The development of COVID-19 vaccines does not imply the end of the global pandemic as now countries have to purchase enough COVID-19 vaccine doses and work towards their successful rollout. Vaccination across the world has progressed slowly in all, but a few high-income countries (HICs) as governments learn how to vaccinate their entire populations amidst a pandemic. Most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been relying on the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility to obtain vaccines. COVAX aims to provide these countries with enough doses to vaccinate 20% of their populations. LMICs will likely encounter additional barriers and challenges rolling out vaccines compared HICs despite their significant experience from the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). This study explores potential barriers that will arise during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in lower-middle-income countries and how to overcome them. We conducted sixteen semi-structured interviews with national-level stakeholders from Ghana and Bangladesh (eight in each country). Stakeholders included policymakers and immunisation programme experts. Data were analysed using a Framework Analysis technique. Stakeholders believed their country could use existing EPI structures for the COVID-19 vaccine rollout despite existing challenges with the EPI and despite its focus on childhood immunisation rather than vaccinating the entire population over a short period of time. Stakeholders suggested increasing confidence in the vaccine through community influencers and by utilising local government accredited institutions such as the Drug Authorities for vaccine approval. Additional strategies they discussed included training more health providers and recruiting volunteers to increase vaccination speed, expanding government budgets for COVID-19 vaccine purchase and delivery, and exploring other financing opportunities to address in-country vaccine shortages. Stakeholders also believed that LMICs may encounter challenges complying with priority lists. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination is different from previous vaccination programs, and therefore, policymakers have to expand the EPI structure and also take a systematic and collaborative approach to plan and effectively rollout the vaccines.

Impact of visitation and cohorting policies to shield residents from covid-19 spread in care homes: an agent-based model.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the impact of visitation and cohorting policies as well as the care home population size upon the spread of COVID-19 and the risk of outbreak occurrence in this setting. METHODS: Agent-based modelling RESULTS: The likelihood of the presence of an outbreak in a care home is associated with the care home population size. Cohorting of residents and staff into smaller, self-contained units reduces the spread of COVID-19. Restricting the number of visitors to the care home to shield its residents does not significantly impact the cumulative number of infected residents and risk of outbreak occurrence in most scenarios. Only when the community prevalence where staff live is considerably lower than the prevalence where visitors live (the former prevalence is less than or equal to 30% of the latter), relaxing visitation increases predicted infections much more significantly than it does in other scenarios. Maintaining a low infection probability per resident-visitor contact helps reduce the effect of allowing more visitors into care homes. CONCLUSIONS: Our model predictions suggest that cohorting is effective in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in care homes. However, according to predictions shielding residents in care homes is not as effective as predicted in a number of studies that have modelled shielding of vulnerable population in the wider communities.

Evaluating intervention strategies in controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in care homes: An agent-based model.

BACKGROUND: Care homes are vulnerable to widespread transmission of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with poor outcomes for staff and residents. Infection control interventions in care homes need to not only be effective in containing the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but also feasible to implement in this special setting which is both a healthcare institution and a home. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model that simulates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 via contacts between individuals, including residents, staff members, and visitors in a care home setting. We explored a representative care home in Scotland in our base case and explore other care home setups in an uncertainty analysis. We evaluated the effectiveness of a range of intervention strategies in controlling the spread of COVID-19. RESULTS: In the presence of the reference interventions that have been implemented in many care homes, including testing of new admissions, isolation of symptomatic residents, and restricted public visiting, routine testing of staff appears to be the most effective and practical approach. Routine testing of residents is no more effective as a reference strategy while routine testing of both staff and residents only shows a negligible additive effect. Modeling results are very sensitive to transmission probability per contact, but the qualitative finding is robust to varying parameter values in our uncertainty analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our model predictions suggest that routine testing should target staff in care homes in conjunction with adherence to strict hand hygiene and using personal protective equipment to reduce risk of transmission per contact.